Titanic vs. Lusitania: How People Behave in a Disaster

By Jeffrey Kluger

It's hard to remember your manners when you think you're about to die. The human species may have developed an elaborate social and behavioral code, but we drop it fast when we're scared enough — as any stampeding mob reveals.
That primal push-pull is at work during wars, natural disasters and any other time our hides are on the line. It was perhaps never more poignantly played out than during the two greatest maritime disasters in history: the sinking of the Titanic and the Lusitania. A team of behavioral economists from Switzerland and Australia have published a new paper in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS) that takes an imaginative new look at who survived and who perished aboard the two ships, and what the demographics of death say about how well social norms hold up in a crisis. 
The Lusitania and the Titanic are often thought of as sister vessels; they in fact belonged to two separate owners, but the error is understandable. Both ships were huge: the Titanic was carrying 2,207 passengers and crew on the night it went down; the Lusitania had 1,949. The mortality figures were even closer, with a 68.7% death rate aboard the Titanic and 67.3% for the Lusitania. What's more, the ships sank just three years apart — the Titanic was claimed by an iceberg on April 14, 1912, and the Lusitania by a German U-Boat on May 7, 1915. But on the decks and in the passageways and all the other places where people fought for their lives, the vessels' respective ends played out very differently.
To study those differences, the authors of the PNAS paper — Bruno Frey of the University of Zurich and David Savage and Benno Torgler of Queensland University — combed through Titanic and Lusitania data to gather the age, gender and ticket class for every passenger aboard, as well as the number of family members traveling with them. They also noted who survived and who didn't. 
With this information in hand, they separated out one key group: all third-class passengers age 35 or older who were traveling with no children. The researchers figured that these were the people who faced the greatest likelihood of death because they were old enough, unfit enough and deep enough below the decks to have a hard time making it to a lifeboat. What's more, traveling without children may have made them slightly less motivated to struggle for survival and made other people less likely to let them pass. This demographic slice then became the so-called reference group, and the survival rates of all the other passenger groups were compared to theirs.
The results told a revealing tale. Aboard the Titanic, children under 16 years old were nearly 31% likelier than the reference group to have survived, but those on the Lusitania were 0.7% less likely. Males ages 16 to 35 on the Titanic had a 6.5% poorer survival rate than the reference group but did 7.9% better on the Lusitania. For females in the 16-to-35 group, the gap was more dramatic: those on the Titanic enjoyed a whopping 48.3% edge; on the Lusitania it was a smaller but still significant 10.4%. The most striking survival disparity — no surprise, given the era — was determined by class. The Titanic's first-class passengers had a 43.9% greater chance of making it off the ship and into a lifeboat than the reference group; the Lusitania's, remarkably, were 11.5% less likely. 
There were a lot of factors behind these two distinct survival profiles — the most significant being time. Most shipwrecks are comparatively slow-motion disasters, but there are varying degrees of slow. The Lusitania slipped below the waves a scant 18 min. after the German torpedo hit it. The Titanic stayed afloat for 2 hr. 40 min. — and human behavior differed accordingly. On the Lusitania, the authors of the new paper wrote, "the short-run flight impulse dominated behavior. On the slowly sinking Titanic, there was time for socially determined behavioral patterns to reemerge." 
That theory fits perfectly with the survival data, as all of the Lusitania's passengers were more likely to engage in what's known as selfish rationality — a behavior that's every bit as me-centered as it sounds and that provides an edge to strong, younger males in particular. On the Titanic, the rules concerning gender, class and the gentle treatment of children — in other words, good manners — had a chance to assert themselves.
Precisely how long it takes before decorum reappears is impossible to say, but simple biology would put it somewhere between the 18-min. and 2-hr. 40-min. windows that the two ships were accorded. "Biologically, fight-or-flight behavior has two distinct stages," the researchers wrote. "The short-term response [is] a surge in adrenaline production. This response is limited to a few minutes, because adrenaline degrades rapidly. Only after returning to homeostasis do the higher-order brain functions of the neocortex begin to override instinctual responses."
Once that happened aboard the Titanic, there were officers present to restore a relative sense of order and to disseminate information about what had just happened and what needed to be done next. Contemporary evacuation experts know that rapid communication of accurate information is critical in such emergencies.
Other variables beyond the question of time played important roles too. The Lusitania's passengers may have been more prone to stampede than those aboard the Titanic because they were traveling in wartime and were aware that they could come under attack at any moment. The very nature of the attack that sank the Lusitania — the sudden concussion of a torpedo, compared to the slow grinding of an iceberg — would also be likelier to spark panic. Finally, there was the simple fact that everyone aboard the Lusitania was aware of what had happened to the Titanic just three years earlier and thus disabused of the idea that there was any such thing as a ship that was too grand to sink — their own included.
The fact that the two vessels did sink is an unalterable fact of history, and while ship design and safety protocols have changed, the powder-keg nature of human behavior is the same as it ever was. The more scientists learn about how it played out in disasters of the past, the more they can help us minimize loss in the future.

"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"

Benjamin Button: Momma? Momma? Some days, I feel different than the day before.
Queenie: Everyone feels different about themselves one way or another, but we all goin' the same way. 


Mrs. Maple: Benjamin, we're meant to lose the people we love. How else would we know how important they are to us? 


Captain Mike: You can be as mad as a mad dog at the way things went. You could swear, curse the fates, but when it comes to the end, you have to let go.


Benjamin Button: It's a funny thing about comin' home. Looks the same, smells the same, feels the same. You'll realize what's changed is you.

Benjamin Button: [Voice over; letter to his daughter] For what it's worth: it's never too late or, in my case, too early to be whoever you want to be. There's no time limit, stop whenever you want. You can change or stay the same, there are no rules to this thing. We can make the best or the worst of it. I hope you make the best of it. And I hope you see things that startle you. I hope you feel things you never felt before. I hope you meet people with a different point of view. I hope you live a life you're proud of. If you find that you're not, I hope you have the strength to start all over again. 

[last lines]
Benjamin Button: Some people, were born to sit by a river. Some get struck by lightning. Some have an ear for music. Some are artists. Some swim. Some know buttons. Some know Shakespeare. Some are mothers. And some people, dance. 

It's so sad... :(

Chile and Haiti: A Tale of Two Earthquakes

Chile and Haiti: A Tale of Two Earthquakes

The 8.8-magnitude earthquake that hit Chile early on Feb. 27 was 500 times stronger than the 7.0 quake that killed an estimated 200,000 Haitians last month. And yet the number of casualties in Chile appears to be exponentially smaller, with the official death toll still in the hundreds. Far fewer people were rendered homeless than in Haiti, and much of the telephone service in Santiago and parts of central Chile had been restored within five hours.

To be fair, Haiti has had far less experience with earthquakes, and therefore earthquake preparedness, than Chile has. (Before Jan. 12, the last major quake to hit Port-au-Prince was in 1751.) There will, of course, be the apologists who insist it's unfair to compare a basket case like Haiti, the western hemisphere's poorest country, with a showcase like Chile, which has Latin America's highest per capita GDP and is set to become the first South American member of the exclusive, Paris-based Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Chile can do things right, Haiti defenders argue, because it's more developed.

Wrong. It's the other way around: Chile is more developed because it's doing things right. The same goes for Brazil, Uruguay, Costa Rica and a handful of other Latin American and Caribbean nations that have decided in the 21st century to stop running their societies like medieval fiefdoms. They've conceded that niceties like rule of law, accountability, education, entrepreneurial opportunity and administrative efficiency actually have merit. And they've stopped making worn-out excuses, like the threats of communism or U.S. imperialism, for not modernizing their political and economic systems.

Finished watching episode 38 of We Got Married...

The last episode of the Lettuce Couple...

It's really sad... I mean of course it's good that Hyun Joong got the role of Ji Hoo, but it's sad that he and Hwang Bo won't get to see each other anymore... Of course I'm hoping they're still meeting up...

Solbi couple gone.

Romantic couple gone.

Lettuce couple gone.

Out of the original couples only the Ant couple remains. Though they are also leaving in episode 41. I just wish they would remove Jung Hyung Don. Those two are already running out of time spent together...

~To the world!~

I really need to start studying le! 2 mid-terms this week!!!

Adapted from "High-Yield Brain & Behavior"

The one about the soldier is quite sad...

Finally found the link to download Keep on by Ai Maeda!!! It's the ending song of Digimon, the one with many circular pictures of the characters...

振り向かないで 走り続けよう Sunshine day
擦りむいた痛みに 负けられない Adventure
立ち向かおう 恐れることはない My future
渇いたノドに うるおいをくれる Your smile
心の奥に住んでる 弱虫な自分に
别れ告げ またひとつ 强くなれるはずさ
今こそ 飞び立つ 勇気を もって
心の羽広げて まだ见ぬ未来へ
今から 果てしない 宇宙へ 向かって
まだ始まったばかりさ 梦への冒険
la la la... la la la...
君の手を握り さあ飞び立とう Blue sky height
明るい声と 笑颜が まぶしい Paradise
暗暗の中 迷っても あきらめない 负けないさ
一筋の光を 见つけられるはずさ
涙を见せる ヒマは无い!
今から 涙は 见せない ように
心の瞳开いて まだ见ぬ 未来へ
今こそ 信じる 强さを もって
いつでも立ち上がれる 勇気を持ってる
la la la... la la la...
うつむいて 肩落としちゃ たどり着けない
希望に満ちた 素敌なゴールに

Furimukanaide hashiritsuzukeyou sunshine day
Surimuita itami ni makerarenai adventure
Tachimukaou osoreru koto wa nai my future
Kawaita nodo ni uruoi wo kureru your smile Kokoro no oku ni sunderu yowamushi no jibun ni
Wakare tsuge mata hitotsu tsuyoku nareru hazu sa Ima koso tobitatsu yuuki wo motte
Kokoro no hane hirogete mada minu mirai e
Ima kara hateshinai sora e mukatte
Mada hajimatta bakari no yume e no bouken
La la la... la la la... Kimi no te wo nigiri saa tobitatou blue night sky
Akarui koe to egao ga mabushii paradise Kurayami no naka mayottemo akiramenai makenai sa
Hitosuji no hikari wo mitsukerareru hazu sa
Namida wo miseru hima wa nai! Ima kara namida wa misenai you ni
Kokoro no hitomi hiraite mada minu mirai e
Ima koso shinjiru yuuki wo motte
Itsu demo tachiagareru yuuki wo motteru
La la la... la la la... Utsumuite kata otoshicha tadoritsukenai
Kibou ni michita suteki na gooru ni Hashiritsuzukeyou idomitsuzukeyou tsuyoku nareru sa! Ima koso tobitatsu yuuki wo motte
Kokoro no hane hirogete mada minu mirai e
Ima kara hateshinai sora e mukatte
Mada hajimatta bakari no yume e no bouken
La la la... la la la... La la la... La la la...

Send "Keep On" Ringtone to your Cell

不往后看地继续跑 Sunshine day（晴天）
不屈服于膝盖擦伤的痛楚 Adventure （冒险）
面对着 没有东西可害怕的 My future （我的未来）
那干渴的喉咙 给润湿了因 Your smile（你的微笑）
向那住在内心深处的 儒弱的自己
告别 说再见 令自己变得一点点坚强
就是现在 持着勇气高飞
展开那心的翅膀 飞向未知的未来
从现在起 被带往那没尽头的宇宙
那只是刚刚开始 奔向梦的冒险
la la la... la la la...
抓着你的手 与你一起高飞 Blue sky height （高高的蓝天）
你那明亮的声音和微笑是耀眼的 Paradise（天堂）
在黑暗中 即使迷失 也不会放弃不会输
我知道我将会看到一线的光
我没有时间去展示我的眼泪！
就是现在 我不会再展示我的眼泪
打开那心的眼睛 向未知的未来进发
从现在起 我相信 我有力量
能再次站起来 当持有勇气
la la la... la la la...
如果低着头 垂下肩膀 是永远不会到达
那充满希望的 绝妙的终点
(couldn't find the english translation :P)

刚读了TH的blog，觉得她好会写哦。相比之下我的blog好像很没有content。。。写一下我对新年的感想吧。。。

我一直以来都不向往新年。真的，从童年时期就如此了。除夕在家吃团圆饭还ok，初一去阿嫲的家，超远的ok，得搭MRT all the way to Tiong Bahru。和爸爸的家人真的很不熟，一年才见一次面，而且频率全然不同。所以年复一年的坐在非常拥挤的客厅，倒数着可以离开的时候。最不喜欢的就是我的大伯，超没人缘的。Every year he will bring his stupid dog to 拜年. Mind you, that house is crowded enough without the dog running all over the place. Don't you think it's very inconsiderate to bring a dog when you know there are going to be people who are afraid of dogs? And all the time he had eyes only for that dog, feeding it mandarin orange, getting a bowl of water to feed it...! I am NEVER going to eat at that house if one of the bowls has been used by a dog!!! WTF! He just looks really annoying and every year I am just bursting to leave that place.

阿嫲每年都一样唠叨，但今年的情况好像比较糟，好像开始有点痴呆了，有点不认得人了。看了有点伤心。。。

过后我们就去大姨的家。。。也没什么。。。 以前还会一起玩牌，但自从买了麻将之后，一家人就分两派了，一组打麻将，一组看电视等着回家 aka zuobo。想想真的挺无聊的，大人打麻将打到凌晨一，两点， 为什么我们明明就累得要死还要等他们？We could have just gone home first. But luckily this year my cousins have bought Wii, so it's not so bad. My hands are aching horribly now, though.

So that's Chinese New Year for me. Nothing more than a routine. And it's my mid-term break now, I really need to study and start on my long report! Bleh!